Weather Markets Edge Desk

Connect Remote server

claude mcp add --transport http weather https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "weather": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

{
  "servers": {
    "weather": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

Settings > Connectors > Add custom connector
URL: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry

Tools 8 found in our last check

• weather_board

  Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.

• weather_settlement

  Use for "what will the Kalshi NYC high settle at", "has LAX already hit 75" and "which Polymarket temperature bucket is winning". Per station: the running max under each venue's settlement rule (Kalshi and Polymarket US on the NWS Climate Report; Polymarket.com on routine METARs…

• edge_alerts

  Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the t…

• convert_probability

  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

• base_rate_gap

  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your…

• bayes_update

  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new i…

• calculate_ev

  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read, with that venue's fee.

• kelly_size

  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for…

Details

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